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Thursday, July 12, 2007

Let the second half begin

Baseball is a funny sport. Its regular season (162 games) is way too long and yet when every team takes three days off in the middle of the season, it feels like the world is about to end. This might have something to do with the fact that nothing else is going on. The NBA and NHL playoffs are long gone and NFL preseason is just a glimmer in a few months.
The consistency of baseball season is one of its most alluring features. On any given summer night (unless you're a Cubs fan), you can catch your team on the tv/radio/internet. For as great as the NFL is, its one downfall is that one game a week doesn't cut it for most add afflicted American sports fan. We need games all the time.
The All-Star game actually falls a little bit past the halfway mark of the season but for all intents and purposes, its a solid marker. The Red Sox headed into the break at 53-34, 10 games ahead of Toronto and New York. As the last weekend showed, the Sox can't simply cruise to the playoffs. The Tigers swept them in three games at Comerica Park, showing why they're the team to beat now that Kenny Rogers is back. A rotation of Bonderman, Verlander and Rogers with a lineup of Sheffield, Ordonez, Guillen, Pudge, etc. is very scary indeed. Their bullpen may be awful but that doesn't seem to be a big deal.
Most people don't want to start crowning the Sox AL East champs yet but I think that's silly. Sure, they'll win the division. Anything can happen, its a long season, blah blah. That's a forgone conclusion. The bigger and more important question is will they make it through the AL playoffs which are shaping up to be one of the toughest in recent memories. Assuming the Tigers, Red Sox and Angels win their divisions with the Wild Card being most likely the Indians and possibly the Mariners, dang.
I'm getting ahead of myself though. I should take a second to look back on the first half and examine what we learned through three months.

1) Dustin Pedroia is a solid major leaguer. If you had told me that two months ago, I would have laughed in your face. He didn't take long to completely prove me wrong and I couldn't be more happy.

2) Josh Beckett has continued to improve as he gets more experience in the American League. He should be a solid starter for years.

3) Jonathan Papelbon is one of the most talented pitchers in the game. You could sense this last season but this season has only proven that more. I would take him over any other closer in baseball. I don't know if that's because I'm a homer but his talent is unquestionable.

4) The two Japanese imports have been great: we all knew Dice-K would be good and while it took him a little while to get used to MLB, he's adjusted just fine. As for Hideki Okajima? Nobody expected anything of this guy and he was an All-Star in his first season. Pretty amazing. He's taken over the set-up role at an important time as Timlin is unreliable anymore.

5) Ortiz and Manny were not who we thought they were. Ortiz (.314 avg, 14 HRs, 52 RBIs) and Manny (.284 avg, 11 HRs, 45 RBIs) had subpar first half by their ridiculous standards. Until proven otherwise, I would say these guys will both have better second halfs. Ortiz's power numbers will go up while everything with Manny should go up. Ortiz has a bad right leg and Manny is 35 but I still can't picture them not picking it up. Time will catch up with them eventually but not this season.

6) Mike Lowell was a complete steal in the Beckett trade. Sure, he might not be here next year. Forgetting that, we've gotten some real value out of Lowell this past year and a half. He should have won a gold glove last year and he was an All-Star this season. What more do you want?

7)Lugo and Drew as expected are busts. Its not like people even had high hopes for these two but so far one has been a disaster (Lugo, batting .197) while the other has been simply average (.258 avg, 6 HRs, 33 RBIs). If they had decent first halfs, the Sox would be up like 13-15 games.

8) Wily Mo will never do anything for the Sox. Baring an injury or trade, his role won't change and predictably neither will his production. The Red Sox version of Pedro Cerrano can't hit the curve ball or anything off-speed and he's an absolute nightmare in the field. Yikes. At least Arroyo is struggling this year with the Reds.

9) Coco Crisp won't be the player Theo and the minions expected when they signed him but he at least has found a role. He's playing a gold glove center field (but he'll never win as long as Torii Hunter is breathing) and getting on base consistently. What a concept. He's not a leadoff hitter which is too bad but i'm slowly starting to like him.

10) Schilling is the key to the Sox second half. If he isn't healthy or can't be effective, the Sox' margian for error is smaller. You need three quality starting pitchers to go far in the playoffs. Beckett, Dice-K, Schilling sounds right. Substituting Wakefield or Tavarez makes the Sox much less imposing. Schill lives for the big moment and if he can compete, you never want to bet against him.

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